Month in Review

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Month in Review

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Social Security, started in the 1930s as a part of FDR’s New Deal, has been under fire since I can remember. All the while, the program has been helping fund the retirement of some 47 million Americans, with another 19 million on survivor or disability benefits. What started out as a way to ensure elderly Americans had some form of income has turned into a major piece of the US economy.

As we help our younger clients plan for retirement, we often hear, “Let’s not plan on Social Security, I don’t think it will be there by the time I retire.” While we understand where this attitude is coming from, we don’t think it reflects reality.

Here’s why:

• Social Security is funded by a separate payroll tax (FICA) that comes out of paychecks up until an individual reaches $160,200 in earned income (2023). That means, that for the first $160,200 each earner makes, 6.2% goes to Social Security, with another 6.2% coming from the employer.
• That’s a total of $19,864 that goes to Social Security for someone who earns $160,200.
• These amounts are then paid out directly to retirees, survivors, and disabled individuals.

As long as there are people working in the United States, there will be money going into, and then out of Social Security.

“But what about the trust fund?”

• As discussed above, Social Security is funded directly from payroll taxes. Up until very recently, the ratio of working to non-working Americans had been high enough that Social Security benefits were fully funded each year.
• However, as Baby Boomers retire and birthrates continue to decline, this is changing. If payroll taxes are not enough to current obligations, the difference is paid by the asset reserves in the Social Security trust fund. As more and more workers retire, the trust fund is expected to be depleted.

By the most recent estimates, the trust fund assets will be spent down by 2034. At that point, Social Security would officially be insolvent.

“That’s what I mean! Once Social Security is insolvent, I won’t get any benefits!”

But what does insolvency actually mean?

• Assuming no legislation is passed to shore up the program, all benefits will be cut to about 79% of what they are today.
• 79% is not 0%. Far from it, in fact, 79% is still solid amount of guaranteed income that the younger generation can plan on as a piece of their overall retirement picture.

“That’s it? That doesn’t sound as bad as what I’ve read in the news.”

No, it doesn’t. For younger workers who have plenty of time to factor such a possibility in their long-term planning, the potential reduction would not be life changing. A relatively modest increase to retirement savings would make up for the potential shortfall.

In reality, Congress will be forced to act, there will likely be changes to Social Security at some point. These changes will probably make sure that current benefits are not cut, and that Americans with no time to adjust will not have the rug pulled out from under them. For younger Americans, the fact remains that as long as we have workers and payroll taxes, Social Security will be there in one way or another.

Disclaimer: This analysis could certainly change pending action by Congress. We are in no way trying to predict the future, but we believe this analysis is reasonable based on the current landscape.

Month in Review

• Major stock indices broke a two-month streak of gains, with all major indices finishing down for the month.
• Growth companies regained favor after two months of value and small cap companies leading the market.
• Bond prices declined due to rising interest rates.

Insight on Inflation

Despite the market volatility, evidence from July’s inflation report suggests progress towards a “soft landing” scenario, where inflation is gradually decreasing, and the economy avoids a recession. In July, headline inflation was at +3.3%, year-over-year, down from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Unlike June 2022, supply chains and goods have largely normalized, with wages and services being the key drivers of inflation today.

Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. CPI used is CPI-U and values shown are % change vs. one year ago. Core CPI is defined as CPI excluding food and energy prices. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator employs an evolving chain-weighted basket of consumer expenditures instead of the fixed-weight basket used in CPI calculations.  Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of August 31, 2023.

As enthusiasts and collectors approach the later stages of their lives, the act of collecting takes on new dimensions. Some may be content to sell their collection and pass the proceeds on to heirs, but for others the treasures that have been amassed over the years are now an opportunity to leave a legacy that will continue to endure.

Here are four considerations to help navigate this phase of your collecting journey:

1. Legacy Planning and Succession Strategy

If you haven’t already, start to incorporate your collection into your broader estate plan. Decide how your treasures will be managed, preserved, or passed on. Engage with experts who specialize in collectibles and estate management, particularly those well-versed in the tax implications of transferring collections.

Consider which heirs will receive each item and why, taking into account their emotional significance and potential for instilling responsibility. If you aim to establish a philanthropic legacy, donating to a museum or organization aligned with your mission not only offers tax benefits but also ensures parts of your collection remain together.

2. Balancing Emotional and Financial Value

While financial considerations have likely played a role in your collecting journey, the emotional value of your treasures becomes increasingly significant as you near this phase. Embrace the joy and memories your collection evokes. If the next chapter is one that doesn’t fetch your estate the highest possible payout or the most optimal tax deduction, that can be OK if the destination fulfills your wishes and maximizes the emotional component of the transition.

3. Philanthropy & Impact

Consider the broader impact your collection can have. Some individuals opt for philanthropic endeavors that align with the themes of their collection. For example, a collector of classic cars may choose to donate his or her collection to an automobile museum that will display the vehicles and allow them to continue to provide joy for many. Donating items, contributing proceeds to charitable causes, or establishing cultural endowments can solidify your legacy as one that extends beyond material possessions.

4. Don’t Forget Logistics

Once you’ve established a robust plan for your collection, it’s crucial to have capable individuals ready to carry it out. For vehicles, consider arranging for an appraisal in advance or identify a trusted appraiser to guide those handling your estate. If you anticipate liquidating a coin collection after your passing, take the initiative to identify a reputable precious metals dealer beforehand. By personally selecting the third parties involved, you can alleviate the executor’s potential challenges in managing and distributing your collection.

As your collecting journey matures, it evolves into a narrative of legacy and stewardship. It’s important to recognize that your collection signifies not just an investment, but a testament to the diverse experiences of your life. Take the necessary time and consider that at Confluence Financial Partners, we’re here to help. Collaborating with the right professionals can help ease the burden and ensure both your life and legacy are maximized.

Month in Review

• Stocks fell during the month of October, marking the third straight monthly decline for the S&P 500 Index.
• Bond markets also fell again during the month, the fifth straight monthly decline for the asset class.
• Concerns over US government funding helped keep interest rates higher in October, pressuring stock and bond markets again.
• US corporate earnings season is also in full swing, with over 50% of the S&P 500 having reported by the end of the month. Companies have thus far reported positive earnings growth with mixed outlooks.

$96 Trillion is going to pass from one generation to the next over the coming 30 years.

This is either going to go smoothly or poorly, and much of that answer will come down to estate planning.

Your estate plan is a crucial aspect of securing your family’s future, and communicating this wealth plan effectively to your children is perhaps even more important.

Here are 4 key strategies to help ensure your heirs are ready:

1. Talk About It

This might seem basic, but start the conversation early. Don’t wait for a crisis to discuss your estate plan. Start the conversation with your children while everyone is in good health and spirits. Choose a suitable time and place for the discussion, ensuring minimal distractions. This will allow your children to focus on the important matters at hand without feeling rushed or pressured.

• Clarify Roles and Responsibilities

Clearly communicate who will be responsible for executing your wishes and managing your affairs if you are unable to do so. If your adult children will be filling these roles, tell them. Don’t assume that your oldest child will understand why you made your middle child the executor. Explain your decisions and choices so that when the time comes there won’t be any confusion or hurt feelings.  

• Educate Your Heirs on the Structure of Your Estate Plan

You don’t have to share all of the details right away, but make a plan for bringing in the next generation into your financial picture. These discussions are difficult to begin in most households, but at some point you should consider letting your adult children know what you have and how all of it will be transferred. Eventually you should share detailed information about your assets, including properties, investments, and savings. Do you have a financial plan with your financial advisor? It would be wise to share it with your children.

When in doubt, over communicate. You would be amazed at the disagreements that will come up after you are gone, many of which are due to a lack of direction and clarity on your part. Don’t assume your children will know what to do. Spell it out for them.

• Address Potential Concerns and Questions

You don’t have to share all of the details right away, but make a plan for bringing in the next generation into your financial picture. These discussions are difficult to begin in most households, but at some point you should consider letting your adult children know what you have and how all of it will be transferred. Eventually you should share detailed information about your assets, including properties, investments, and savings. Do you have a financial plan with your financial advisor? It would be wise to share it with your children.

When in doubt, over communicate. You would be amazed at the disagreements that will come up after you are gone, many of which are due to a lack of direction and clarity on your part. Don’t assume your children will know what to do. Spell it out for them.

Nobody likes to have these conversations, but they are important. We often talk at Confluence about helping our clients maximize their legacies, and typically children are the most important part of a legacy. We are here to help you facilitate meaningful conversations with the next generation that help you ensure your wealth impacts future generations positively. Don’t wait, the time to communicate is now.

Month in Review

• Stock and bond markets extended their rally in December, capping off a strong fourth quarter with broad-based gains. Value stocks and US small cap stocks led equity markets higher during the month.
• Major US bond markets finished in positive territory, preventing what would have been a record-breaking third consecutive calendar year loss.
• The continued decline in inflationary data and increased likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve were key catalysts for markets during the month.

Narrow Market Leadership

The S&P 500 and growth stocks benefitted from continued strong results from technology companies during 2023. The outsized results of these companies pushed their valuations even higher, with Apple finishing the year as roughly 7% of the S&P 500’s value. This is the largest single weighting in the last 30-years and follows three previous years where Apple represented at least 6% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. While Apple and six other companies were responsible for the lion’s share of the US stock market’s results in 2023, there are opportunities for broader participation as we head into 2024.

Source: FactSet and Goldman Sachs Asset Management. As of December 31, 2023.

In the past decade, estate tax conversations have been steadily decreasing. As the lifetime credit has climbed to unprecedented highs, many wealthy Americans have come to believe that they are safely out of Uncle Sam’s reach. However, recent history is just that, it’s recent. Historically, estate taxes have been a major factor for both middle class and high-net-worth Americans. Furthermore, estate taxes are often easy targets for adjustments when fiscal gaps need closing. This article explores why estate taxes should continue to be a priority in your wealth planning, and how you can be prepared for whatever the future may hold.

Don’t Assume Estate Taxes Won’t Be a Problem

The current estate tax lifetime exemption is $13.61MM per individual, or $27.22MM per couple. These numbers have become so high in recent years, that many high-net-worth Americans have come to believe that they no longer need to worry about estate taxes. My advice is to be careful, because congress can change the rules at any time. As recently as 2008, the exemption was only $2MM per individual, and it was even lower than that in the 1990s and early 2000s. Even under current law if nothing else changes, the $13.61MM exclusion will be cut in half on January 1^st of 2026. When tax shortfalls arise, estate taxes are often viewed as low hanging fruit for Washington. The current exclusion level is an aberration, not the historical norm.

Don’t Let Your Estate Documents Become Stale

The rule of thumb for most families is to have their estate plan documents reviewed every 5 years. However, if you are a high-net-worth individual with an estate tax issue, these reviews should be much more frequent. In fact, estate tax considerations should be a part of your financial plan to be reviewed and discussed at least annually and perhaps more if there is a significant change in the law. Vehicles such as irrevocable trusts and joint insurance policies can help mitigate the risk of owing estate taxes, and these vehicles and strategies should be a part of the normal cadence of planning.

Don’t Forget to Incorporate Charitable Giving into Your Estate Plan

Charitable giving is one of the many strategic ways to avoid estate taxes, especially if you’ve already set aside the amounts that you plan to leave to your children. Wealth that is left to charitable organizations is not subject to the 40% estate tax. This means that instead of giving $600K to your children and $400k to the government, you give $1MM to an organization you care about, or to a foundation or Donor Advised Fund that is run by your children. Most people would prefer that their heirs decide which causes receive those funds rather than a large chunk being sent to Washington.

Make Sure You Have the Right Team:

Your team of professionals should include not only an excellent wealth manager who can help you plan around these issues, but also an attorney and a CPA who are experts in their fields when it comes to estate taxes. These issues are complex, and they can change quickly. Make sure that you are working with professionals who have the knowledge and the bandwidth to give these issues the attention they deserve.

In Summary

Estate planning is a dynamic field that requires regular attention, especially for those with significant wealth. High-net-worth individuals should not only reassess their estate plans frequently but should also consider incorporating charitable giving as part of their strategy. Be sure your planning team includes knowledgeable wealth managers, attorneys, and CPAs as this is crucial as you navigate the ever-changing landscape of estate taxes. Complacency can be costly – proactive estate planning should remain a critical element of your financial health.

If we can be of help to you and your family, please give us a call!

About the Author

The opportunity to make a positive difference in people’s lives is why Randy chose a career in wealth management. He is passionate about helping his clients achieve their goals and cut through the…

Grove City, Pittsburgh

randall.holcombe@confluencefp.com

Email Randy

Confluence Financial Partners and its affiliates do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction.

Month in Review

• It was a choppy month for stock and bond markets as volatility rose towards the end of January. US large caps squeezed out a positive return, while US small caps and international equities trailed.
• Investors pushed expectations of interest rate cuts out, helping to increase interest rates, which weighed on major bond markets during the month.
• Economic data remains strong enough that the Federal Reserve largely took a March rate cut off the table in late January.

Equity Markets Following Bear Market Recoveries

The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high on January 25^th, illustrating the progress the equity market has made following the most recent bear market. Along with making new all-time highs comes an influx of short-term noise, making it important to review the history of market returns following bear market recoveries. Looking at all 14 cases since 1957, the S&P 500 rose an average of 23% over the 18 month period following the 20% recovery from a bear market low. In present day, the S&P 500 had a bear market low on October 12, 2022, and recovered 20% roughly 9 months later in June 2023. Ignoring short-termism around all-time highs, history suggests the equity markets continue to rise after recovering from a bear market.   

Source: Yahoo! Finance as of 1/30/2024; BMO Capital Markets via Brian Belski.

What’s on Deck for February?

• Earnings season will wrap up, after companies posted largely mixed results in January. 
• Banks are back in focus following the surprise weakness in some regional bank earnings. Given the events of March/April 2023, investors have heightened sensitivity to any perceived weakness in the banking channel.
• The Federal Reserve does not have a (FOMC) meeting in February, so investors will look for additional information from Fed officials following the January meeting. The Federal Reserve surprised investors by taking a March rate cut off the table, suggesting it would happen later in 2024 depending on economic data.