Category: Insights

Read all of the insights coming from the experts at confluence financial partners.

  • Stock Market Recap: January 2024

    • It was a choppy month for stock and bond markets as volatility rose towards the end of January. US large caps squeezed out a positive return, while US small caps and international equities trailed.
    • Investors pushed expectations of interest rate cuts out, helping to increase interest rates, which weighed on major bond markets during the month.
    • Economic data remains strong enough that the Federal Reserve largely took a March rate cut off the table in late January.

    The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high on January 25th, illustrating the progress the equity market has made following the most recent bear market. Along with making new all-time highs comes an influx of short-term noise, making it important to review the history of market returns following bear market recoveries. Looking at all 14 cases since 1957, the S&P 500 rose an average of 23% over the 18 month period following the 20% recovery from a bear market low. In present day, the S&P 500 had a bear market low on October 12, 2022, and recovered 20% roughly 9 months later in June 2023. Ignoring short-termism around all-time highs, history suggests the equity markets continue to rise after recovering from a bear market.   

    Source: Yahoo! Finance as of 1/30/2024; BMO Capital Markets via Brian Belski.

    • Earnings season will wrap up, after companies posted largely mixed results in January. 
    • Banks are back in focus following the surprise weakness in some regional bank earnings. Given the events of March/April 2023, investors have heightened sensitivity to any perceived weakness in the banking channel.
    • The Federal Reserve does not have a (FOMC) meeting in February, so investors will look for additional information from Fed officials following the January meeting. The Federal Reserve surprised investors by taking a March rate cut off the table, suggesting it would happen later in 2024 depending on economic data.
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • Disability Insurance Planning for Physicians: Key Facts & Considerations

    Nearly 1 in 5 people living in the United States will suffer a disability lasting more than one year before the age of 65.1


    Imagine not being able to practice your specialized medical skills due to illness or injury. The financial impact could be devastating for you and your family. As a physician, your income hinges on your ability to work. That’s why individual disability insurance as part of your financial plan is crucial for safeguarding your earning potential.

    Choosing disability insurance involves understanding the different types and the benefits each brings. For example, there are two categories of disability policies, short-term disability and long-term disability. Short-term disability policies are typically obtained as a group policy benefit from one’s employer while long-term disability policies are also offered as a benefit through an employer BUT are more commonly purchased as an individual policy through a broker or financial advisor.

    Additionally, you can purchase own-occupation coverage or any-occupation coverage. The difference between the two is meaningful. Under an own-occupation policy, a person is typically considered disabled if they are unable to perform the material and substantial duties of the job they were working at the time they became disabled. Under an any-occupation policy, a person is considered disabled if they are not able to perform substantial duties of any job for which the person may earn a certain percentage of their pre-disability earnings.  

    For physicians, it is essential to work with an advisor who understands your needs and unique situation to recommend the right disability insurance strategy.

    Beyond basic understanding of disability insurance, it’s important to understand key factors like the carrier, benefit amount, elimination period, and renewal options.

    • Insurance Carrier – know who you are working with. Currently, only 5 carriers offer “true” own-occupation coverage.
    • Benefit Amount – the IRS publishesd “Issue & Participation” amounts based on your income and existing disability coverage.
    • Waiting Period – the amount of time one must wait to collect benefits when disabled – typically 90, 180, 365, or 730 days.
    • Benefit Period – how long one will be eligible to receive their tax-free benefit. This is typically to age 65, 67, 70, or lifetime.

    The above list is not all encompassing but should be considered as you construct your insurance package.

    At Confluence Financial Partners, we work with physicians to secure and protect their income in the event an unexpected illness or injury becomes reality. Please reach out if you would like to start the conversation today.

    Life and disability insurance and life insurance with long-term care benefits are not issued through Confluence Insurance Services. Products and services referenced are offered and sold only by appropriately appointed and licensed entities and financial advisors and professionals. Not all products and services are available in all states. 

    Rob Linkowski
    About the Author

    Rob Linkowski brings more than 35 years of experience in designing and providing quality life and disability insurance programs to his clientele of medical professionals, business owners, family and friends. Rob is passionate about advocating for his clients and not the insurance companies.

  • Multi-Generational Legacies: Communicating Your Estate Plan

    $96 Trillion is going to pass from one generation to the next over the coming 30 years.

    This is either going to go smoothly or poorly, and much of that answer will come down to estate planning.

    Your estate plan is a crucial aspect of securing your family’s future, and communicating this wealth plan effectively to your children is perhaps even more important.

    1. Talk About It

    This might seem basic, but start the conversation early. Don’t wait for a crisis to discuss your estate plan. Start the conversation with your children while everyone is in good health and spirits. Choose a suitable time and place for the discussion, ensuring minimal distractions. This will allow your children to focus on the important matters at hand without feeling rushed or pressured.

    • Clarify Roles and Responsibilities

    Clearly communicate who will be responsible for executing your wishes and managing your affairs if you are unable to do so. If your adult children will be filling these roles, tell them. Don’t assume that your oldest child will understand why you made your middle child the executor. Explain your decisions and choices so that when the time comes there won’t be any confusion or hurt feelings.  

    • Educate Your Heirs on the Structure of Your Estate Plan

    You don’t have to share all of the details right away, but make a plan for bringing in the next generation into your financial picture. These discussions are difficult to begin in most households, but at some point you should consider letting your adult children know what you have and how all of it will be transferred. Eventually you should share detailed information about your assets, including properties, investments, and savings. Do you have a financial plan with your financial advisor? It would be wise to share it with your children.

    When in doubt, over communicate. You would be amazed at the disagreements that will come up after you are gone, many of which are due to a lack of direction and clarity on your part. Don’t assume your children will know what to do. Spell it out for them.

    • Address Potential Concerns and Questions

    You don’t have to share all of the details right away, but make a plan for bringing in the next generation into your financial picture. These discussions are difficult to begin in most households, but at some point you should consider letting your adult children know what you have and how all of it will be transferred. Eventually you should share detailed information about your assets, including properties, investments, and savings. Do you have a financial plan with your financial advisor? It would be wise to share it with your children.

    When in doubt, over communicate. You would be amazed at the disagreements that will come up after you are gone, many of which are due to a lack of direction and clarity on your part. Don’t assume your children will know what to do. Spell it out for them.

    Chuck Zuzak
    About the Author

    Chuck joins Confluence Financial Partners with 13 years of experience in the financial services industry, most recently as Director of Financial Planning at JFS Wealth Advisors. At a fundamental level, Chuck’s passion for financial planning stems from the desire to help clients connect their personal values and purpose with their financial resources.

  • Maximize Your Year End Giving: Charitable Planning Strategies for Individuals

    As the end of the year approaches, it’s an opportune time for clients to utilize strategies that align charitable goals with their financial objectives. In this article, we will explore various charitable planning opportunities and strategies to leverage to help our clients optimize their giving while improving their overall financial situation.

    One of the primary incentives for charitable giving is the potential to reduce taxable income. However, timing and method play a crucial role in maximizing these benefits. Below are several techniques to consider as part of year-end planning:

    • Avoiding Capital Gains Tax: Donors avoid paying capital gains tax on the appreciation of the asset.
    • Maximized Tax Deduction: They receive a charitable deduction for the fair market value of the donated securities, provided they’ve held the asset for more than one year.
    • Watch Your Limits: The IRS places limits on the amount clients can deduct for charitable contributions. For cash donations, the limit is typically 60% of AGI, while donations of appreciated assets are limited to 30% of AGI. If the total contributions exceed these limits, the excess can be carried forward for up to five years.
    • Helps Portfolios: This strategy is particularly useful in bull markets, where many clients may have appreciated assets they would otherwise sell to rebalance their portfolios.
    • Satisfies Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs): For clients who have reached their required beginning date, QCDs can reduce taxable income by offsetting RMDs.  However you need to be careful to make QCDs first, before taking any other income yourself.  The first dollars out of a qualified account are the RMD dollars; if you take your RMD first and then try to make a QCD later, it won’t count.
    • Tax-Free Distribution: Unlike regular withdrawals, the QCD is excluded from the client’s taxable income, offering a substantial benefit for those who don’t itemize deductions, which can help clients stay within lower tax brackets or avoid Medicare premium increases.
    • This strategy is particularly advantageous for clients who may no longer need the full amount of their RMD for living expenses but are still required to take it.

    One way to implement this is through a Donor-Advised Fund (DAF):

    • Clients can make a lump-sum contribution to a DAF and receive an immediate tax deduction.
    • In subsequent years, the client can take the standard deduction and not make additional charitable contributions until the next “bunching” year.
    • The funds can be distributed to charities over several years allowing donors to maintain their philanthropic commitments.
    • It’s ideal for clients facing a windfall year or who have highly appreciated assets they wish to donate.
    • For clients seeking to create a structured giving plan, or for those who may not have specific charities in mind yet, a DAF can serve as a helpful intermediary.
    • Generate Income Streams: Charitable trusts allow donors to convert highly appreciated assets into a steady income. For example, with a Charitable Remainder Trust (CRT), donors or their beneficiaries receive a fixed or variable income for life or a specified period. This can be an attractive option for retirees or clients seeking supplemental income while also supporting charities in the future.
    • Grow the Legacy: One of the most significant benefits of charitable trusts is the potential to transfer appreciated assets, such as real estate or stocks, without triggering capital gains taxes.  When assets are placed into a Charitable Remainder Trust (CRT) and sold, the proceeds are untaxed to the trust, allowing more principal to be retained for both income generation and charitable legacies.
    • Immediate Tax Deduction: Contributions to a charitable trust are eligible for an immediate charitable deduction, based on the present value of the future charitable donation. This deduction can help offset taxable income in the year of the contribution, providing immediate tax relief.

    Your wealth manager can help you formulate a personalized year-end charitable giving plan. Here’s a checklist approach to developing it:

    1. Identify Charitable Goals: What causes are important to you?
    2. Review Taxable Income: Determine whether itemizing or taking the standard deduction makes sense.
    3. Evaluate Assets: Identify appreciated securities or other assets that could be donated.
    4. Consider Timing: Ensure donations are made before December 31 to qualify for the current tax year.
    5. Explore Donor-Advised Funds: If clients plan to give over multiple years, DAFs may be an optimal solution.
    6. Engage Family: Involve family members in the charitable conversation.
    7. Check Matching Programs: Encourage clients to explore employer matching gift
    Chuck Zuzak
    About the Author

    Chuck joins Confluence Financial Partners with 13 years of experience in the financial services industry, most recently as Director of Financial Planning at JFS Wealth Advisors. At a fundamental level, Chuck’s passion for financial planning stems from the desire to help clients connect their personal values and purpose with their financial resources.

  • Stock Market Recap: September 2023

    Month in Review

    • Stocks had their worst month since December 2022 and bonds fell for the fourth straight month. 
    • Rising Treasury yields were the primary catalyst – the 10-year Treasury yield hit a 16-year high during September.
    • Restrengthening inflation data and the prospect of additional interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve are the main catalysts for the pressures.

    Bond Yields Return to Average

    Despite nearly a decade of low interest rates, the 10-year Treasury yield typically averages 3% to 5% yield, going back to the late 1800’s. For the first time since 2007, the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.5%, comfortably returning to long-term averages. Recent inflation data was stronger than expected, contributing to the increase in yield, along with the prospect of additional rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The increase in yields reduces the value of bond investments in the short-term, and higher yields present a more attractive alternative to stocks – two reasons stocks and bonds struggled in August and September.

    What’s on Deck for October?

    • Outside of fundamentals, there are headwinds from the on-going autoworkers’ strike, and a potential shutdown of the US government. Both events historically have not had lasting impacts on the economy and markets.
    • The surprisingly strong labor market was the primary reason the predicted 2023 recession did not happen – investors will be watching job creation and unemployment claims data closely for any softening.
    • An additional interest rate hike in November or December is very much up in the air. Inflation data had strengthened somewhat, along with energy prices increasing sharply since June. It is unclear if this is enough for the Federal Reserve to hike one more time.

    Download the September 2023 Market Recap below:

    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

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  • Stock Market Recap: August 2024

    • Broad-based gains during the month of August, with US large cap stocks finishing the month up +2.43% (S&P 500 TR Index). In the US, large cap value (+2.68%, Russell 1000 Value TR Index) finished ahead of large cap growth (2.08%, Russell 1000 Growth TR Index) for the second consecutive month.
    • US small cap stocks took a breather after a strong July, finishing August down -1.49% (Russell 2000 TR Index). Outside the US, developed international equities benefitted from a weakening US dollar, rising +3.25% in August (MSCI EAFE NR USD).
    • Bond markets rose for the fourth straight month in August, with the Barclays US Agg Bond TR Index finishing the month +1.44%.

    The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates in September, the first interest rate cut since they began increasing interest rates in March 2022. Investors are now pondering, “what happens next?”: a “soft” or “hard” landing for the economy.

    While not officially defined, a soft landing would be a continued decline in inflation and interest rates, without growth slowing down enough to enter a recession. Hard landing would be the opposite – a continued increase in unemployment and a slowdown in economic growth, resulting in a recession. Soft landings are historically less common, with the most recent (and classic case) being the 1994-1995 period.

    Inflation has fallen closer to the Federal Reserve’s target rate, while unemployment has also begun to increase, prompting the likely rate cut in September. However, other signs indicate continued strength in the economy: for example, estimates for GDP growth this quarter stand at +1.5%. With no clear forecasts for a soft or hard landing, investors have priced in three to four rate cuts by the end of 2024, indicating expectations that the Federal Reserve will start and continue rate cuts in September.

    Sources: Capital Group, Bureau of Economic Analysis, FactSet. Figures for Q1:20, Q2:20, and Q3:20 are –5.5%, –31.6%, and 31.0% respectively, and are cut off by the y-axis given the extreme fluctuations associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimate for Q3:24 is based on the mean consensus estimate from FactSet. As of August 22, 2024.

    • With  earnings season wrapped up in August, investors will be watching the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting closely for color around a potential rate cut. 
    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • Maximize Your Legacy: The Great Wealth Transfer and Your Opportunities

    We’ve all heard the numbers. Over the next 30 years, an estimated $70-$90 trillion is going to pass from the Baby Boomers to the next generation. This will be a transfer of wealth the likes of which the world has never seen. Not only are the Baby Boomers the wealthiest generation ever to live, their wealth is broad and relatively spread out. Generally speaking, this is the first generation in which the middle class will play a significant role in the wealth transfer. While Boomers’ parents largely had pensions that ended at death, their children instead have sizable retirement accounts that will be passed down. Add that to the fact the American and global economies have massively expanded over the past 50 years, and we have a recipe for a wealth transfer for the ages.

    At Confluence Financial Partners, our mission is to help our clients maximize their lives and legacies. When it comes to legacy, the upcoming wealth transfer is an important issue for the majority of our clients. That means that a major part of our job is to help our clients, where appropriate, engage the next generation in hopes that the family legacy will continue. Studies have shown that 70% of families lose their wealth by the second generation, and 90% by the third. We want to help families avoid being part of this statistic, and instead build something that lasts.

    Here are four steps that you can take to help ensure that your legacy is secure.

    Consider a Multi-generational Advisory Relationship

    Over 50% of our clients are multigenerational, meaning we have family members in more than one generation who we are serving. Often children are clients with their parents from a young age, but as they become adults, they become more independent and establish their own relationship with us as their advisor. Another common situation is when clients refer their parents to us, forming a multigenerational relationship from the other direction. Still another way this happens is when adult children establish a relationship with us as their parents (who are clients already) age and it becomes even more important to all be on the same page.

    Even if you are not a Confluence client, we would encourage you to find an advisor and a firm that is making multi-generational wealth considerations a priority. Your advisor should help you bridge the gap between the wealth that you’ve built and the next generation for whom you hope that wealth will be a blessing. We have shepherded many families through this difficult period already, and the whole process is undoubtedly much easier if the parents and the children share the same advisor.

    Take Another Look at Your Estate Plan

    When was the last time you had your estate plan reviewed? If you are like most Americans, it’s probably been a few years. The typical estate plan is adequate for only a certain season of life, and it will need to be redone as children get older and circumstances change. Like a financial plan or an investment portfolio, an estate plan should be periodically updated as goals change. An estate plan update is almost always needed after a major life event such as a birth, a death, or a change in marital status.

    Sometimes an estate plan can be as simple as a pair of wills and power of attorney documents. More often, however, trusts should be involved and more careful consideration should be taken to help ensure that wishes are carried out. For example, what would happen in the event of a death or divorce of a child? If protections aren’t built into the estate plan, it’s possible that a parent’s wealth ends up with a child’s ex-spouse instead of the grandchildren. That is an avoidable scenario, but it’s important to ask the right questions and think critically about the key factors that will cause the plan to either be successful or not.

    We don’t have attorneys at Confluence, but we do have a robust process for reviewing your existing estate plan so that you understand your current situation. Once we learn where you are today, we can help educate you so that you are prepared when you speak to your attorney about updates. We work closely with our clients throughout the whole process and are there to help in every way we can.

    Communicate, Communicate, Communicate

    The primary reason that the wealth transfer could go poorly for the majority of families is a lack of communication. An inheritance can be a difficult subject to broach, especially for the first time. As a result, many families put these conversations off until it is too late. Don’t let that be your family.

    We find that most families assume that their children will handle the inheritance with ease, but that isn’t always the case. We’ve seen many situations in which the heirs were paralyzed by their newfound wealth and the responsibility that comes along with it. They don’t feel prepared to handle the wealth, and so it wears on them. Rather than enjoying the legacy that their parents worked so hard to build, they instead live in fear of losing it all. Fortunately, this can be remedied by simple and consistent communication. Imagine if those same heirs had been let in on the family wealth along the way. Imagine if they knew how the accounts and estate plan were structured. Most importantly, imagine if they understood their parent’s dreams and wishes around the wealth. Imagine they understood the values and expectations that go along with the wealth being transferred.

    One question we often ask our clients is this: Will your children still speak to each other after you are gone? Many clients take this for granted, but an estate plan that has not been communicated will inevitably lead to disagreements and fraught relationships. This is especially true in unique situations where the split is not even amongst the heirs, but money can cause even the most reasonable people to turn their backs on each other. Thankfully, again the odds of this happening can be greatly reduced with solid and consistent communication on the part of the wealth creators. Don’t leave ambiguities that can be interpreted. Make your wishes known and take the (sometimes) uncomfortable step of starting a pattern of communication.

    Have a Family Meeting

    One concrete way to start or solidify communication around the great wealth transfer is to have a family meeting. Ideally, this would lead to a regular cadence of meetings, but the first one is usually the hardest. These meetings can take many different forms, but they are typically initiated by the wealth creators of the family and include the adult children in the upcoming generation. Many families want to communicate better about important topics like their estate plan, financial expectations, and charitable goals, but they don’t know where to start. That’s where a family meeting can be a great opportunity to open important lines of communication.

    At Confluence, facilitating these family meetings is one of the most important things that we do. We regularly sit down with our client families at our office or their homes to help get everyone on the same page. We don’t believe this type of meeting should be only done in an emergency after a terminal diagnosis, although that may sometimes be necessary. Rather, we think it is essential to start thinking about this now, before there is a crisis of any kind. Communication around wealth transfer that is done while the whole family is focused and not in crisis is ideal because it prepares the family to be ready if or when the crisis does arrive.

    Conclusion

    The largest wealth transfer that the world has ever seen is coming. For many, it has already started. That transfer is going to go well for some families, but very poorly for many. At Confluence, we’ve made the next generation a priority, right down to the way we have structured our firm. Many advisors work as lone wolves, with no real succession plan or assurance of what will happen to the families they serve once the advisor retires. At Confluence, we are building a firm so that we can help not only our current clients, but their children and grandchildren as well. We work in teams, and we have advisors who are in their 70s all the way down to their 20s. We’ve made significant investments in growing the next generation of advisors so that our clients’ children and grandchildren can be confident in the Confluence of the future.

    As you read this today, we implore you to start thinking about what your next step may be towards making sure that your financial legacy is secure. Perhaps you need to have your estate plan reviewed, or you should make that call to your attorney that you’ve been putting off. Maybe you’ve been meaning to ask your advisor about a family meeting or considering introducing your parents or children to your financial team. Whatever the next step is for you on this journey, we ask you to take it. Your family will be grateful that you did.

    Confluence Wealth Services, Inc. d/b/a Confluence Financial Partners is a SEC-registered investment adviser. Confluence Financial Partners only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or notice filed or excluded or exempted from registration requirements. The security of electronic mail sent through the Internet is not guaranteed. All email sent to or from this address will be received or otherwise recorded by the Confluence Financial Partners corporate email system and is subject to archival, monitoring and/or review, by and/or disclosure to, someone other than the recipient. Confluence Financial Partners recommends you do not send confidential information to us via electronic mail, including social security numbers, account numbers, and personal identification numbers, unless properly encrypted. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available for your review upon request or by visiting the following link:https://live-confluencefp.pantheonsite.io/form-adv-2a/

  • Tax Planning Tips for the Charitably Inclined

    You can do well by doing some good!  Not only can giving to a charity make a positive impact, it can provide an opportunity for some tax benefits too. If you are a high-income earner or a retiree who plans on writing checks to your favorite charities, then you may benefit from these three wealth and tax planning tips you can take advantage of in the future.

    Donor Advised Funds (DAFs)

    • An immediate tax deduction can be taken for the amount donated in the year the contribution is made to the DAF.  Then, you as the donor advisor to the DAF decide which 501(c)(3) organizations (e.g., religious organization, college, hospital/clinic, community center, etc.) receive grants from the fund at any time in the future.  DAFs are a great vehicle to us if you have a big cash flow year and you know you want to make a large deductible contribution, but you aren’t sure to which organizations yet. A DAF allows you to get the deduction today and decide which charities will be ultimate beneficiaries at a later date.
    • If a client contributes long-term appreciated securities to their DAF, they can avoid capital gains tax on the appreciated portion and receive an immediate charitable tax deduction for the full market value of the gift.
    • Assets donated during the life of the client are no longer part of the client’s estate, and therefore, are not subject to probate or estate taxes. The DAF can also be named as a beneficiary to an IRA, a charitable remainder trust, or other asset.
    • Unlike private foundations, there are no start-up costs, no tax on the fund’s investment income, no individual payout requirement, and all record keeping services are included.

    Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs)

    • A QCD allows individuals who are 70.5 years of age or older to donate up to $105,000 per year per individual to one or more charities directly from a Traditional IRA (For 2024, QCD limit increased to $105,000 from $100,000 in 2023). The charity must be a 501(c)(3) organization. Private foundations or donor advised funds are not eligible to receive QCDs.  
    • QCDs count toward your required minimum distribution (RMD) amount. (Inherited IRAs also qualify for QCD provided you meet the age requirement.)
    • QCDs are non-taxable distributions and not included in your adjusted gross income (AGI).  This is important because regular charitable contributions do not lower AGI.  Lowering AGI can have a number of benefits, including bringing down Medicare Part-B premiums, qualifying for certain deductions, and lowering the taxable portion of Social Security.
    • Keeping your taxable income lower can help avoid elevating to the next federal tax bracket or potentially provide opportunities for other tax planning considerations.

    Donate appreciated investments.

    • Look at your portfolio as an opportunity toward donating long-term appreciated securities (e.g., stocks, mutual funds, bonds). 
    • Capital gains are eliminated when you contribute long-term appreciated assets directly to a charity (via the charity’s trustee or custodian) instead of selling the assets and donating the after-tax proceeds.
    • The charity can then sell the assets and pay no tax on the appreciated gains because of their tax-exempt status.

    Act today and consult your fiduciary wealth manager and tax professional to develop a plan to best align with your goals and charitable endeavors. You have an opportunity to make a positive IMPACT on charities both today and tomorrow while also receiving some tax benefits along the way. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or if we can help in any way.    

    Zac Saunders
    About the Author

    Known for his professionalism and calming demeanor, Zac is focused on helping his clients reach their financial goals through comprehensive financial planning and unbiased guidance.  Zac and his team support and care for the overall financial well-being of their clients.

  • 4 Investment Themes for 2023

    Heading into 2023, the Investment Advisory Committee believes we are beginning to return to a more historically normal, rational economic environment.

    The Committee has identified four key themes for 2023 and the years ahead:

    1. Fundamentals Matter Again:

    • From 2009 to 2021, expansive government and monetary policies kept interest rates and inflation near record lows.
    • This environment favored US and growth stocks, whose stock prices are driven primarily by future growth prospects, as opposed to things like profitability and earnings.
    • The unwinding of these accommodative policies is leading us back to an environment where strong company fundamentals will likely again be vital when building investment portfolios.

    2. Dividends Back in Focus:

    • Dividends represented a historically small amount (16%) of the S&P 500’s return during the 2010’s and early 2020’s.
    • Going back to 1926, dividends have contributed 38% of the market’s annualized return.
    • As we return to a more normalized environment, we believe dividends will likely become a larger portion of total return.

    3. “Income” is Back in Fixed Income:

    • The rise of inflation was a key catalyst for pushing interest rates back to historical levels.
    • While difficult in some ways, the new interest rate environment means investors can likely rely on bonds again for income.

    4. Asset Allocation Works Again:

    • In 2022, value stocks performed better than growth stocks and international stocks beat US stocks. This was in contrast to the past decade where returns have been concentrated primarily in US Growth stocks.
    • We believe the shifting environment could result in continued normalization, benefitting diversified portfolios.
    • For the first time in over a decade, bonds will likely play a meaningful role in portfolio composition.

    Source: Morningstar

    The future is impossible to predict, and nobody has a crystal ball. However, we believe that the four themes listed above will likely have a major impact on investor outcomes over the next year and beyond.

    If you would like to talk through how these themes may impact your portfolio, please give us a call.

    William Winkeler
    About the Author

    Bill has more than 15 years of experience in the investment industry, most recently as Managing Director of Investments at a private wealth management firm. In his role at Confluence, Bill chairs the Investment Advisory Committee and develops and implements investment strategy for clients of the firm, as well as communicates investment content with clients.

  • 5 Benefits of working with a Registered Investment Advisor

    by Jackson Elizondo

    Working with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) is desirable for high-net-worth individuals, families, and institutions for the personal, unbiased, and tailored advice to their unique financial situation. They have a fiduciary duty to act in your best interest while providing comprehensive financial services to meet your goals.

    What is an RIA? 

    A Registered Investment Advisor is a firm registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that provides clients with financial advice. A team of advisors will often employ their expertise for customized guidance with the freedom to choose from a wide range of investment options for tailored advice for you.

    What is the benefit of working with a Registered Investment Advisor?

    1. A legal obligation to act in your best interest

    The fiduciary standard of an RIA has a “fundamental obligation” to work in the best interests of its advisory clients. Recommendations will be made in good faith, based on your needs, and allow a direct line of communication if there is a need for clarification or change.

    1. Providing more than just investment advice

    Financial professional teams within an RIA firm are often skilled in disciplines beyond just portfolio management. They include retirement, estate, charitable legacy, tax, insurance, education planning for you and your family, and corporate services, including employee benefits. These teams will work hand-in-hand with an established financial network to develop investment strategies considering tailored solutions for your unique financial situation.

    1. Transparent & available public records

    Each RIA must file and publicly post a Form ADV that offers a comprehensive view of the organization. A Form ADV offers objective and transparent information, including conflicts of interests, compensation, disciplinary filings, education, and the firm’s key personnel.

    1. Straightforward fee-based compensation

    Many RIA’s offer financial advice and planning for a fee based on a percentage of your assets under management. This service creates a mutual benefit of a transparent fee structure that aligns the clients’ best interests with those of the RIA.

    1. Professional Education

    Many wealth management teams will usually include highly experienced financial professionals with prestigious designations. These teams often bolster professional training and certifications such as the Certified Financial Planner® (CFP®) designation, Accredited Asset Management Specialists® (AAMS®), Certified Public Accountant (CPA) or Accredited Investment Fiduciary® (AIF®) and commit themselves to continuous education on your behalf.

    Consider a Registered Investment Advisor at Confluence Financial Partners

    Simple, straightforward, and non-biased assistance with your comprehensive financial plan aligns with the priorities of an RIA. If you are looking for wealth management advice at a concierge level of service, Confluence Financial Partners, may be the team of financial professionals for you.

    Please contact a member of the Kimmich Team if you’re interested in having a discussion.

    Chuck Zuzak
    About the Author

    Chuck joins Confluence Financial Partners with 13 years of experience in the financial services industry, most recently as Director of Financial Planning at JFS Wealth Advisors. At a fundamental level, Chuck’s passion for financial planning stems from the desire to help clients connect their personal values and purpose with their financial resources.